Guest Blogger: Dane Placko 2

Dane Placko is a member of the biased liberal media. As a reporter for WFLD-TV (FOX), he is a well-known face in Chicago. (For those of you who don't live in Chicago--he's the one on the right. The man on the left is an unidentified Cubs fan at Wrigley). Dane previously worked in television in Milwaukee and Iowa, and in radio in Champaign, Illinois. That's where we got to know each other.

Although he lives and breathes journalism, Dane does have another side to him. For instance, he told me the funniest joke I've ever heard (about a moose). If you ever run into him in an appropriate social setting, ask him to tell it to you (it's not appropriate for this blog). Dane is also an avid gardener, but that's not what I asked him to write about. In March, I asked him to write about the one thing he thinks about more than anything else in the world...the Chicago Cubs (Cubs Preview 2006). After this incredible season, I thought it might be fun to get him to a recap too.


"WHAT WENT WRONG...AGAIN"

By Dane Placko



There are many numbers that help explain just how wretchedly awful your 2006 Cubs really were.

66-96 for starters. That's right. A team with a $96 million payroll finished 30 games under .500... dead last in the National League.

Cubs hitters posted a .319 on-base percentage. Again, worst in the league. And pitchers got hammered to the tune of a 4.74 ERA.

But here's a number I'll bet you haven't seen anywhere else. And I guarantee you it is THE dominant reason for this ballclub's suckiness:

292

That's the difference between the number of bases on balls given up by Cubs pitchers... and the number of bases on balls taken by Cubs batters. Very nearly two walks a game.

And that's simply insurmountable.

Now, it would be one thing if this were just the product of bad hitters and bad pitchers. But what really galls Cubs fans is that our former manager apparently believes the the walk disparity is no big deal.

When the toothpick holder was questioned in late August about his ballclub's inability to get on base:

“On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and
do something with that on-base percentage,” Baker
said. “On-base percentage just to clog up the bases
isn’t that great to me.”

In other words, Dusty would much rather have players swinging away for hits than risk "clogging" the bases with walks.

And they paid this genius $16 million over four years.

Which explains why patient young hitters like Murton and Theriot sat way too often while hackers like Perez and Womack and Hairston and Cedeno and Bynum and Izturis and Pagan wasted hundreds and hundreds of at bats.

Dusty didn't just tolerate hackiness. He encouraged and rewarded it.

Of course, Dusty's now gone. Unfortunately GM Jim Hendry is just as blind about OBP, so I'm not expecting any major improvement until the management blow-out is completed... probably after 2007.

Only the Cubs could screw up an already-lost season. One of the few benefits of being out of it by Mother's Day is that you can road test your young players like Murton and Theriot and Pie without the pressure of a pennant race. Dusty buried Theriot until August...never played Murton five days straight... and refused to sit Jones and Pierre for fear of offending his precious vets. I'll never understand why Hendry didn't call up Pie after he raked Triple-A pitching for the last two months of the season.

So what do the Cubs do now?

There are essentially two ways to build a championship: Spend like crazy, like the Yanks, Bosox and Mets. Or tear the team down to the studs and develop a solid nucleus of blue chip youngsters that grow into greatness, like the Twins, Tigers, Indians and next year's Marlins.

The Cub's problem is they can never commit to either philosophy. They don't want to spend with the big boys. And they're afraid the fan base won't sit still for a year or two of rebuilding.

So they usually adopt a hybrid strategy of patch and fill... hoping they'll catch a couple lucky breaks and sneak into the playoffs. The Cubs will always overpay for free agent mediocrities like Jacque Jones, but won't chase high-demand talent like Rafael Furcal.

If I'm Hendry, I take the bold step of telling Cubs fans that I respect their baseball smarts enough to trust they will support a thorough rebuilding movement, even if it means the 2007 team isn't immediately competitive. There are only four good free agents available, but one of Zito, Schmidt, Soriano and CLee aren't going to make the Cubs championship caliber. Cut the payroll to $75 million and save for a huge payroll boost in 2008.

Game plan for 2007:

--Commit to Theriot as your starting shortstop. While
he never got a chance to play short with the Cubs, he
played it well in the minor leagues. He's a perfect
leadoff man with enough patience to have a .350+ OBP
even if he doesn't hit over .275.

--Also commit to Murton in left field. After an awful
June, Murton had an OPS well over .900 after the All
Star break. He may not hit more than 25 home runs, but
he'll get on base at a .375 clip. Ideal #2 batter.

--Second baseman Marcus Giles is being made available
by the Braves. Go out and get him. Should be able to
do it for a package of young pitching, and the Cubs
have plenty of solid minor league arms.

--Let Pierre become a free agent and wave bye-bye.
He's far and away the most overrated player on this
team. It's almost impossible to get 204 hits and wind
up with an OBP of .330... but Pierre did it.

--Sign Kenny Lofton to fill CF until Pie is ready,
which should be well before the All Star break.

--Sign a free agent innings-eater to fill one spot in
the rotation-- think Westbrook or Miguel Cabrera.
Zambrano can become a free agent after 2007. Ink him
to a 5 yr/$65 million deal. High priority. Rich Hill
will be a good number two. Let Prior, Marmol, Mateo,
Marshall and Guzman fight it out in spring training
for the 4th and 5th spots. Remember... we're
developing.

--Find a right-handed platoon partner for Jones... who
simply can't hit lefthanders. Craig Wilson would be a
good start.

--Don't spend too much money on the bullpen. It's a
luxury for a team that's not expected to win. Consider
trading Howry and Eyre for a stud rightfield prospect
who could be plugged in after the All Star break. Hope
Demspster re-establishes his closer bona fides... then
trade him to a contender.

--Pay the buyout on Wood's contract and wish him luck
with another team. The Cubs need to end this saga.

--Offer a fair, but not outrageous contract to keep
Ramirez... say 4 years/$52 million. If someone offers
more, let him walk. There's a surplus of blue-chip
third base prospects sprinkled throughout the game.
And there's also the chance that ARod will be made
available by the Yanks.. for less than you'd be paying
ARam.

As for who's going to manage, it looks right now as though it's Girardi's job to lose.

He won't tolerate any of the goofiness that sidetracked this team far too often under Baker. But I'm not so sure his baseball philosophy is all that different from Dusty's.

After 98 years... why not wait a couple more and do it right?